To stop climate change risks need to be taken

Is the planet burning? It certainly seems to be on fire during the Summer months. The question is, can humanity stop climate change?

There are five significant global risks facing organisations and the world as we know it.

The burning question is, do enough countries want to work together to tackle the dangers that threaten us all?

Since the pandemic of 2021, the risks that companies and countries previously faced have now intensified.

Where does humanity turn? Can good governance prevent global catastrophe?

Among the key risks discussed in the latest risk report are climate catastrophe, the growing divides between the affluent and the poor, the industrial and economic divisions in all societies, and how these interconnect.

Major crises are usually eliminated by social cohesion and global cooperation, so the pandemic has been a valuable lesson in preparing for future risks, the most concerning of which is global warming due to corporate activity.

If there is a silver lining, the global pandemic gave us one crucial lesson: great things can be accomplished by intelligent people and democratic nations when they work together.

As news spread of a virulent Sars-like virus emerging from China in January of 2020, Donald Trump boasted to the American people. “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

What transpired over the next six months – as the Coronavirus spread rapidly through the richest and poorest nations on earth – was unlike anything most people had ever experienced.

The last time the world’s population faced such an indiscriminate and seemingly unstoppable viral foe was during the 1918 flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide.

By the summer of 2020, the world had changed forever. At least 495 million jobs had been lost worldwide. Billions of people had taken frightened refuge in enforced lockdowns.

However, this economic and social shockwave did not just restrict our freedoms; it significantly increased social and economic inequalities and unleashed a tsunami of disinformation and violent scepticism.

Poor people suffered the most, and they continue to suffer. The rich quoted Seamus Heaney on Instagram.

The human and economic costs associated with COVID-19 were almost beyond comprehension.

Social cohesion and global cooperation were brutalised and weakened, and years of progress on reducing poverty and inequality were lost.

When the ‘recovery’ came, it was unjust and full of inequalities. The poorest were the worst affected while the richest prospered once again.

And then Putin launched his attack on Ukraine.

Following the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, social inequalities and rising inflation became dominant realities.

Job losses, a widening digital divide and unstable social interactions will have dire consequences and result in lost opportunities for many people on the planet.

The impending global economic crisis, the intensified social unrest, and gathering geopolitical tensions will result in several key, heightened threats to businesses and nations.

Unfortunately, according to many economists, the next decade of global risks associated with cyberattacks, weapons of mass destruction and, most notably, climate change will intensify.

While many economic risk reports read more like a horror story than an economic outlook, there may be a glimmer of hope.

There are four governance options to promote an overall more resilient international community. These four governance options are based on the lessons learned from COVID-19.

Intelligent, democratic nations need to lead the way for the rest of the world and:

1. Develop holistic, systems-based frameworks for assessing risks;
2. Invest in risk champions with high profiles to encourage international cooperation and national leadership;
3. Combat misinformation and improve risk communications, and;
4. Explore new forms of public-private partnerships devoted to risk preparation.

The world is not in a good place.

It wasn’t in a good position before the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, and now it is very vulnerable.

And what can history teach us about this?

It’s not good.

When wealthy nations are deeply divided and inequalities abound, dark forces try and take control.

History easily shows us the risks but can we learn from them?

Democracy’s moral decay and the unchecked brutality of autocratic regimes are combining to create an environment hostile to calls for better governance.

Democracy and pluralism are under attack.

A growing number of major-nation dictators are striving to crush the last vestiges of dissent within their country and spread their influence to new parts of the world.

Meanwhile, many free-elected politicians limit their concerns to narrow interpretations of national interest.

Cyber warfare and AI have evolved as a top-level systemic threat to nations and organisations, with misinformation now the most potent attack tool.

Bringing down a server or stealing credit card details could be viewed as quaint in today’s world.

Having the ability to infect democratic elections and drive populations away from scientific advances is an entirely more dangerous power.

Excessive weather, climate action failure, and human-led environmental damage are among the most significant risk factors in the next ten years, as are digital power concentration, digital inequality, AI and cybersecurity failure.

Long term, infectious diseases are the most significant impact risk for human civilisation, followed by failures of climate action and other environmental hazards, as well as weapons of mass destruction, livelihood crises, debt crises, and the breakdown of IT security infrastructure.

In the coming two years, the most imminent threats are employment and livelihood crises, widespread youth disillusionment, economic stagnation, environmental degradation, erosion of societal cohesion, and terrorist attacks.

Economic risks will be the dominant theme in the next three to five years, including asset bubbles, price instability, commodity shocks, and debt crises, followed by geopolitics, including interstate relations, conflict, and resource battles.

Over the next five to ten years, environmental risks such as biodiversity loss, natural resource crisis, and climate failure will be paramount, alongside weapons of mass destruction, adverse effects of technology and the collapse of states or multilateral institutions.

Healthcare disparities, education gaps, financial instability and technology have caused the crisis to disproportionately impact specific groups and nations.

Only 28 global economies are expected to have grown in 2020.

We can expect more deaths and losses of livelihoods to directly affect the risk of “social cohesion erosion”, another critical short-term risk identified economic think tanks.

The five risk categories are all addressable. It will take enormous cooperation between nations that embrace democracy and understand the value of objective intelligence and sound science.

The five main risk categories may look inoffensive but could be deadly. They are:

• Economic
• Environmental
• Geopolitical
• Societal
• Technological

Prolonged and systemic economic stagnation has devastating effects on society; even the rich will suffer.

Due to inadequate healthcare, education, financial instability, and technology, certain groups and countries have been disproportionately affected by the crisis.

Rich people and rich nations need to find creative ways to share the wealth. Otherwise, money may have no meaning as societies descend into bitter battles over resources and fundamental human rights.

People will never be immune to climate change, and it continues to be a catastrophic risk.  “Climate action failure” dude to disinformation is a growing reality.

‘Youth disillusionment’ has been neglected by the global community, but it will ultimately pose a serious threat to the world in the short term.

many societies’ hard-won democratic gains could be wiped away if the current generation lacks adequate paths to future opportunities.

Today’s economic and political institutions will be in grave danger if the young lose their faith in them.

Some people can work online; many can’t.

The pandemic shone a bright and searing light on digital poverty.

Digital divides can worsen social problems, hampering prospects of inclusive recovery.

Inclusion in the digital environment is threatened by rapidly growing digital dependency, rapid technological advancement, and suppressing knowledge and manipulation.

Across the world, gaps in technology regulation pose a threat to our collective future, along with a lack of technology skills.

The crisis has amplified the primary business risks emanating from industrial societies.

A few examples are stagnation in the advanced economies and potential loss in emerging and developing markets.

The collapse of small businesses will lead to a wider gap between large and small companies and reduced market dynamism.

All this will aggravate inequality, making it harder to achieve long-term sustainable development.

The picture of risk painted by many organisations around the world shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone with a passing interest in economics, history and sociology.

The world is in grave danger.

Good governance can be the difference between life and death, between a future worth fighting for or a past just worth mourning.